You Won't Be Left Behind if You Don't Use AI
Every time I see "people who don't use AI will be left behind," I roll my eyes. When migraine brain's post came up on the trending Bearblog posts I gave out a little "huzzah!" because I love seeing the contrarian views.
You know what I also heard that about constantly 10 years ago? Smart homes. I'm not a person who has monitored economics over my decades of life, but I've been interested in technology and how people use it since I was a kid. These passive observations have become patterns over time, and it turns out lots of people have done research and written papers on what I've seen. I'll take some cues from them to help you see what I'm seeing.
We're currently in the "Gold Rush" phase of AI, a 5- to 10-year window where companies are blindly seeking "AI skills" without a clear definition of what that means. Companies are blindly adopting AI products without considering the user workflow or whether it makes sense. Futurists are making wild statements about the future of AI based on how they'd ilke it to progress. If you're not using an LLM to draft your emails or build your slide decks, the rhetoric suggests you're making yourself obsolete.
If you just look back into recent history you'll see several different possible endings depending on how people choose to use the technology: the most transformative technologies become invisible, moving from revolution to lifestyle choices. The reactions we're seeing are in perfect alignment with the Technology Adoption Life Cycle. We are seeing the same patterns we saw with the dawn of the personal computer, word processing, and the internet.
In the 1990s there was a persistent fear that if you didn't learn to "code" or couldn't talk about all aspects of a LAN, you would become unemployable. For several years, webmasters were the highest paid people in the office because they possessed specialized skills in this new world. As the technology matured, it leveled out. Today being "good at the internet" isn't a job skill, it's a baseline utility, and you don't need to know anything about how it technically works to use it. There are millions of successful professionals who don't even use the internet in their jobs. The technology didn't replace or dictate the future of the workforce like initially predicted.
The "Smart Home" is the best metaphor I can think of when it comes to AI. A decade ago, tech enthusiasts predicted that every home would be a fully automated hub of Internet of Things (IoT) devices, and those who didn't adapt would live in "dumb," inefficient homes. Today, our dumb houses are functioning perfectly well. In fact, I think today there are so many ads all over smart home devices that people are grateful they never adopted the "smart home" approach. I don't think AI will be any different. It enhances if you choose to use it, but you're not at a loss if you don't. Smart home adoption is a niche now. After the initial decade of frantic adoption and panic, AI will likely settle into the background as a tool for those who want it, while leaving the core of human work (judgment, empathy, physical presence) largely untouched.
We are also seeing this "evening out" with social media and smart watches. There was a period where "digital presence" was advertised as "mandatory" for any professional brand, yet we are seeing a trend of executives and creatives going out of their way to avoid the attention economy. While smart watches offer health insights, they haven't made analog watches obsolete. These technologies transitioned from being "the only path forward" to being "another option if that's what you prefer."
We'll likely continue to see AI-first hiring for a decade, which will be frustrating for people who prefer not to use it. However, the hype will reach its peak and plateau, and "AI specialist" roles will likely be folded back into general roles. The "human in the loop" will remain the most valuable asset because while AI can simulate "what," it struggles with "why."
You won't be left behind by a machine. You'll be living in a world where the machine is another appliance to use to some goal or end. Some people will swear by it but others will find it completely unnecessary and live/work/play fine without it.